On August 7, 2026, while most investors were still immersed in the sentiment of a prolonged cryptocurrency market downturn, on-chain data revealed a different picture. According to a report released by CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics firm, and reported by the blockchain media CoinPost on August 6 local time, the latest market report indicated that despite overall price pressure, whale addresses holding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP—the three major digital assets—continued to accumulate. The report suggested that this structural shift, characterized by large capital absorbing sell-offs and tokens concentrating towards long-term funds, closely matches typical features of the latter half of previous bear markets, suggesting the market might be entering a critical "bottom-building and accumulation" phase. Whale Holdings Recover to 3.06 Million: Smart Money is Returning to Bitcoin Let's look at Bitcoin first. CryptoQuant data shows that after excluding exchange and mining pool addresses, Bitcoin whale wallets, which had dropped to about 2.87 million in December of last year, have been continuously recovering this year, currently rising to about 3.06 million. The report specifically pointed out that when Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark in June of this year, the buying intensity from large investors at lower levels significantly increased, contrasting sharply with retail panic selling. However, this holding level is still below the high of about 3.23 million during the 2025 bull market phase. In other words, whales have not returned to a "fully stocked" state and still hold considerable ammunition. CryptoQuant views the continuous recovery of whale balances during a bear market as one of the clearest signals of "smart money." The logic is not complex: large holders, who are characterized by a stronger long-term fund attribute, continuously absorb market sell-offs, which compresses the circulating supply in the market. This change in token structure often creates conditions for a price rebound once future demand recovers. Ethereum Holdings Diverge: Small and Medium Investors Exit, Ultra-Large Wallets Hit Record Highs The change in Ethereum's holding structure is even more pronounced. Data shows that medium-sized holding addresses, holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH, have decreased from about 15.6 million in January of this year to about 12.9 million. Meanwhile, large holding addresses, holding between 10 million and 100 million ETH, have increased from about 14 million in mid-2025 to about 19.6 million, setting a record high. The accumulation by ultra-large wallets holding over 100 million ETH is particularly notable. This set of data paints a clear picture of "token migration": the selling from individuals and small to medium-sized investors is being continuously absorbed by large investors. The more concentrated the holdings are towards long-term funds, the more likely the actual market circulation to decrease, laying the groundwork for price performance after a future demand recovery. From a behavioral finance perspective, this is precisely the typical process of "weak hands" handing over tokens to "strong hands" in the market. XRP Synchronously Accumulates: Absorbing at Low Levels Near $1 The XRP market has shown similar signals. After falling from about $2.4 in early this year to near $1, the average transaction size in the spot market still indicates that large funds are dominant, and whale accumulation continues. CryptoQuant analyzed that the combination of "large limit orders + neutral CVD (90-day Taker Buy/Sell Volume Difference)" suggests that the market is more likely in a phase of digesting selling pressure and gradually building a bottom, rather than actively driving up the price. In other words, the current strategy of large funds is closer to "taking stock" rather than "pumping"—they are patiently waiting for cheaper tokens, not rushing to initiate a rally. This restraint itself indicates that the market is still in a period of building strength.

Bottom Not Yet Confirmed: Realized Price Remains a Key Benchmark

However, CryptoQuant also reminds investors that it is premature to assert that the market has completely bottomed out. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin typically forms a final bottom after the price falls near the realized price (the average cost of all on-chain tokens). As of now, the prices of Bitcoin and XRP are still slightly above the realized price, while only Ethereum's trading level is below this metric.

The report concludes that the current whale accumulation is likely a typical characteristic of the latter half of a bear market, but the market cannot rule out another downturn before the final bottom is confirmed. In other words, the continuous entry of "smart money" does not mean that the short-term trend will immediately reverse; bottom formation often requires repeated volatility and consolidation.

Implications for Southeast Asian Investors: Slow Variables Are More Valuable Than Fast Sentiment

For investors in Thailand and Southeast Asia, this on-chain signal is quite valuable. In recent years, many Southeast Asian countries have been accelerating the compliance process for digital assets. Thailand has approved licensed digital asset exchanges and continuously improves its regulatory framework, leading to increasingly mature compliant trading channels in the region. Against this backdrop, marginal changes in the on-chain token structure provide investors with another dimension of observation, distinct from price fluctuations—it reflects the true attitude of long-term capital toward the current valuation.

Industry insiders point out that whale accumulation is a typical "slow variable," reflecting the long-term capital's judgment of value, rather than short-term trading timing. For Southeast Asian investors looking to diversify asset allocation through the blockchain sector, it is better to focus on three core indicators than to chase short-term gains or losses: first, changes in whale holdings after excluding exchanges and mining pools; second, the relationship between price and realized price; and third, the rhythm of stablecoin inflows and off-chain capital entry. The combination of these three often provides a more solid basis for decision-making than simple price candlesticks.

Conclusion: In the Latter Half of a Bear Market, Patience Is More Important Than Boldness

Overall, CryptoQuant's report offers a dose of rational medicine to the currently pessimistic market: the market is not stagnant, and long-term capital is moving beneath the surface. However, as the report emphasizes, the final bottom has not been confirmed, and the risk of a second bottoming is still present. For investors, maintaining composure during periods of extreme market pessimism, deploying capital in batches through compliant channels, and strictly managing positions and risks may be the correct posture to navigate the cycle. On-chain data has provided the direction; what is tested next is the patience and discipline of each investor.